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Review of Environmental Economics and Policy
Article
License: CC BY NC
Data sources: UnpayWall
Review of Environmental Economics and Policy
Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Expert Elicitation: Using the Classical Model to Validate Experts’ Judgments

Authors: Colson, Abigail R.; Cooke, Roger M.;

Expert Elicitation: Using the Classical Model to Validate Experts’ Judgments

Abstract

The inclusion of expert judgments along with other forms of data in science, engineering, and decision making is inevitable. Expert elicitation refers to formal procedures for obtaining and combining expert judgments. Expert elicitation is required when existing data and models cannot provide needed information. This makes validating expert judgements a challenge because they are used when other data do not exist, and thus measuring their accuracy is difficult. This article examines the Classical Model of structured expert judgment, which is an elicitation method that includes validation of the experts' assessments against empirical data. In the Classical Model, experts assess both the unknown target questions and a set of calibration questions, which are items from the experts’ field that have observed true values. The Classical Model scores experts on their performance in assessing the calibration questions and then produces performance-weighted combinations of the experts. From 2006 through March 2015, the Classical Model has been used in thirty-three unique applications. Less than one-third of the individual experts in these studies were statistically accurate, highlighting the need for validation. Overall, the performance-based combination of experts produced in the Classical Model is more statistically accurate and more informative than an equal weighting of experts.

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Keywords

Risk Management, HD61, 004

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
117
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 1%
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