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Open Forum Infectious Diseases
Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY NC ND
Data sources: Crossref
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PubMed Central
Article . 2023
License: CC BY NC ND
Data sources: PubMed Central
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Geographic Targeting of COVID-19 Testing to Maximize Detection in Los Angeles County

Authors: Katherine M Jia; Rebecca Kahn; Rebecca Fisher; Sharon Balter; Marc Lipsitch;

Geographic Targeting of COVID-19 Testing to Maximize Detection in Los Angeles County

Abstract

Abstract Background Many severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infections have not been detected, reported, or isolated. For community testing programs to locate the most cases under limited testing resources, we developed and evaluated quantitative approaches for geographic targeting of increased coronavirus disease 2019 testing efforts. Methods For every week from December 5, 2021, to July 23, 2022, testing and vaccination data were obtained in ∼340 cities/communities in Los Angeles County, and models were developed to predict which cities/communities would have the highest test positivity 2 weeks ahead. A series of counterfactual scenarios were constructed to explore the additional number of cases that could be detected under targeted testing. Results The simplest model based on most recent test positivity performed nearly as well as the best model based on most recent test positivity and weekly tests per 100 persons in identifying communities that would maximize the average yield of cases per test in the following 2 weeks and almost as well as the perfect knowledge of the actual positivity 2 weeks ahead. In the counterfactual scenario, increasing testing by 1% 2 weeks ahead and allocating all tests to communities with the top 10% of predicted positivity would yield a 2% increase in detected cases. Conclusions Simple models based on current test positivity can predict which communities may have the highest positivity 2 weeks ahead and hence could be allocated with more testing resources.

Keywords

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    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    1
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
Green
gold