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Phylodynamic Inference across Epidemic Scales

Authors: Volz, E; Romero-Severson, E; Leitner, TK;
APC: 1,998.32 EUR

Phylodynamic Inference across Epidemic Scales

Abstract

Within-host genetic diversity and large transmission bottlenecks confound phylodynamic inference of epidemiological dynamics. Conventional phylodynamic approaches assume that nodes in a time-scaled pathogen phylogeny correspond closely to the time of transmission between hosts that are ancestral to the sample. However, when hosts harbor diverse pathogen populations, node times can substantially pre-date infection times. Imperfect bottlenecks can cause lineages sampled in different individuals to coalesce in unexpected patterns. To address realistic violations of standard phylodynamic assumptions we developed a new inference approach based on a multi-scale coalescent model, accounting for nonlinear epidemiological dynamics, heterogeneous sampling through time, non-negligible genetic diversity of pathogens within hosts, and imperfect transmission bottlenecks. We apply this method to HIV-1 and Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak sequence data, illustrating how and when conventional phylodynamic inference may give misleading results. Within-host diversity of HIV-1 causes substantial upwards bias in the number of infected hosts using conventional coalescent models, but estimates using the multi-scale model have greater consistency with reported number of diagnoses through time. In contrast, we find that within-host diversity of EBOV has little influence on estimated numbers of infected hosts or reproduction numbers, and estimates are highly consistent with the reported number of diagnoses through time. The multi-scale coalescent also enables estimation of within-host effective population size using single sequences from a random sample of patients. We find within-host population genetic diversity of HIV-1 p17 to be 2Nμ=0.012 (95% CI 0.0066-0.023), which is lower than estimates based on HIV envelope serial sequencing of individual patients.

Country
United Kingdom
Keywords

DYNAMICS, 570, Biochemistry & Molecular Biology, EFFECTIVE POPULATION-SIZE, HIV Infections, SEQUENCE DATA, 0603 Evolutionary Biology, Bias, Methods, Humans, Computer Simulation, TRANSMISSION HISTORY, Epidemics, Phylogeny, Genetics & Heredity, Population Density, Evolutionary Biology, 0604 Genetics, Science & Technology, DRUG-USERS, Models, Statistical, EVOLUTIONARY RATES, HIV, 0601 Biochemistry And Cell Biology, Genetic Variation, coalescent, Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola, Models, Theoretical, phylodynamics, COALESCENT INFERENCE, Ebolavirus, Genetics, Population, RISK GROUPS, Ebola, HIV-1, EFFECTIVE NUMBER, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Algorithms

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
29
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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