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The Optimal Timber Rotation: An Option Value Approach

Authors: Andrew J. Plantinga;

The Optimal Timber Rotation: An Option Value Approach

Abstract

Abstract Previous analyses of the timber rotation problem under price uncertainty find that timber owners can increase the expected values of their stands by using a reservation price policy that exploits stochastic variations in prices. This result is found when the process governing prices is stationary and with nonstationary prices when there are fixed costs. This paper highlights the role of option values in influencing the optimal timing of harvests. In this context, the option value is a premium over the expected net present value of a timber stand reflecting the opportunity cost of harvesting now and foregoing the option to delay harvest until information on future stand values is revealed. With stationary prices, option values arise from two sources of forthcoming information: the level of the stumpage price relative to the long-term mean and the stand value relative to fixed costs. With nonstationary prices, option values are associated only with the latter information. This paper demonstrates analytically that reservation price policies act as a mechanism for incorporating the option value into the calculus of the optimal rotation length. Numerical simulations provide further insights into the effects of option values on rotation lengths, expected stand values, and reservation prices. For. Sci. 44(2):192-202.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
54
Top 10%
Top 10%
Average
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