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Currency Flows and Currency Crises

Authors: Nikolas A. Müller-Plantenberg;

Currency Flows and Currency Crises

Abstract

According to the most common understanding, currency crises are always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. Based on a formal theoretical model and ample empirical evidence, this article argues instead that currency crises are always and everywhere about external imbalances. They are usually preceded by booms in consumption, investment, and output. Since part of the added spending falls on imports, output and saving rise less than investment, pushing the current account into deficit. The exchange rate depends on the gap between cumulative capital inflows and the cumulative current account deficit. When the boom starts, this gap is positive and the central bank can hoard reserves and sterilize capital inflows. Yet later, as optimism fades, the gap inevitably turns negative, leading to the depletion of reserves and the collapse of the exchange rate. Panic can lead to precipitous speculative attacks. (JEL codes: F31, F32, F34, G01, G11.)

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
5
Average
Average
Top 10%
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