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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Biosecurity and Biot...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
Biosecurity and Bioterrorism Biodefense Strategy Practice and Science
Article . 2009 . Peer-reviewed
License: Mary Ann Liebert TDM
Data sources: Crossref
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Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Bioterrorism Risk

Authors: Ezall, B.C.; von Winterfeldt, D.;

Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Bioterrorism Risk

Abstract

For more than 30 years, probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been a major tool for assessing risks and informing risk management decisions by government and businesses in areas as diverse as industrial safety, environmental protection, and medical decision making. The more recent application of PRA to terrorism risk is new, however, and not uncontroversial, as evidenced by the commentary by Parnell and colleagues in the December 2008 issue of "Biosecurity and Bioterrorism." The National Research Council on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security's Biological Agent Risk Analysis has argued that because of the adaptive nature of the terrorist adversary, alternative tools like decision trees, game theory, and agent-based modeling are needed to assess the risks of terrorist events and that probabilistic risk analysis is not valuable. In this commentary, we take a broad view of PRA, including any probabilistic approach involving tools like event trees, fault trees, decision trees, and influence diagrams. We make 2 points: (1) PRA is useful to quantify terrorism risk, and (2) event trees can help to decompose the universe of terrorism scenarios.

Keywords

570, Bioterrorism, Risk Assessment, United States, Probability

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
14
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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