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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Big Dataarrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
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Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
License: Mary Ann Liebert TDM
Data sources: Crossref
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Article . 2018
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Article . 2023
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Improving Predictive Accuracy in Elections

Authors: David Sathiaraj; William M. Cassidy Jr.; Eric Rohli;

Improving Predictive Accuracy in Elections

Abstract

The problem of accurately predicting vote counts in elections is considered in this article. Typically, small-sample polls are used to estimate or predict election outcomes. In this study, a machine-learning hybrid approach is proposed. This approach utilizes multiple sets of static data sources, such as voter registration data, and dynamic data sources, such as polls and donor data, to develop individualized voter scores for each member of the population. These voter scores are used to estimate expected vote counts under different turnout scenarios. The proposed technique has been tested with data collected during U.S. Senate and Louisiana gubernatorial elections. The predicted results (expected vote counts, predicted several days before the actual election) were accurate within 1%.

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Keywords

Machine Learning, Politics, Humans, Computer Simulation, Algorithms, United States

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Average
Average
Average
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