
arXiv: 2302.13956
An updating rule specifies how an agent reacts to information. An updating rule is Blackwell monotone if more information is always better for an agent in a decision problem and strictly Blackwell monotone if, in addition, there is always a decision problem in which more information is strictly better for an agent. Bayes' law is strictly Blackwell monotone, and I show that within a broad class of updating rules--those that distort the Bayesian posteriors in a signal-independent manner--it is the only strictly Blackwell-monotone updating rule. If an agent's decisions are evaluated non-paternalistically (according to her beliefs), the Blackwell-monotone updating rules are affine distortions of the Bayesian posteriors.
Previously titled "Bayes = Blackwell, Almost."
FOS: Economics and business, Theoretical Economics (econ.TH), Theoretical Economics
FOS: Economics and business, Theoretical Economics (econ.TH), Theoretical Economics
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 1 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Average | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Average |
