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The Journal of Infectious Diseases
Article . 1997 . Peer-reviewed
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Predictions for Future Human Influenza Pandemics

Authors: R G, Webster;

Predictions for Future Human Influenza Pandemics

Abstract

Will there be another human influenza pandemic? The certainty is that there will be, and the probability is that the virus will emerge from Eurasian aquatic bird reservoirs and involve reassortment between a human and avian strain, with accumulation of mutations or true recombinational events (or both) that will permit spread and pathogenicity among humans. This process will probably occur in pigs because they possess receptors for both avian and human influenza viruses, and emergence may occur in southern China. Prediction of the subtype is impossible, but there is a hypothesis based on seroarcheology that only H1, H2, and H3 subtypes can infect humans; however, it is arguable that H7 or H2 strains might be equally capable of infecting humans.

Related Organizations
Keywords

Influenza, Human, Animals, Humans, Orthomyxoviridae, Probability

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    selected citations
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    80
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 1%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
80
Top 10%
Top 1%
Top 10%
bronze