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An Economic Theory of Monetary Reform

Authors: Flood, Robert P; Garber, Peter M;

An Economic Theory of Monetary Reform

Abstract

Agents' beliefs in the imminent reform of a particular money supply process can have a powerful effect on their predictions of such variables as the rate of inflation. To find a criterion for monetary reform, we argue that any money supply process which does not provide a finite solution for price in a Cagan-type hyperinflationary money market will be rejected by the public. Such a process does not have the basic property of money which we call "process consistency," and we suggest that agents' subjective probabilities that their money is "process consistent" are identical to the probability that they attach to a currency reform. We compute agents' subjective probabilities that a particular money supply process is process consistent for the explosive part of the German hyperinflation, and we find that the probability of process consistency reached its lowest level in the very week in which the reform started.

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Powered by OpenAIRE graph
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
51
Top 10%
Top 1%
Top 10%
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