It is pointed out that kinetic factors inherent in cosmic systems will prevent the attainment of an approximate equilibrium precondensation cluster distribution, and that therefore such systems will violate one of the most fundamental assumptions of nucleation theory. More importantly, it is shown that of the 11 refractory metal/metal oxide systems which have been studied experimentally none are consistent with the predictions of either classical nucleation theory or the Lothe-Pound modification. Since no valid method is known by which these deficiencies can be circumvented, it is concluded that nucleation theory cannot be made to work in expanding circumstellar shells. However, a stochastic, kinetic treatment which makes use of experimental and theoretical data for specific refractory systems does appear to be feasible.