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Article . 2025
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Dynamic analysis of deterministic and stochastic SEIR models incorporating the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process

Dynamic analysis of deterministic and stochastic SEIR models incorporating the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process
Authors: Pritam Saha; Kalyan Kumar Pal; Uttam Ghosh; Pankaj Kumar Tiwari;

Dynamic analysis of deterministic and stochastic SEIR models incorporating the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process

Abstract

In this paper, we introduce a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemic model and analyze it in both deterministic and stochastic contexts, incorporating the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. The model incorporates a nonlinear incidence rate and a saturated treatment response. We establish the basic properties of solutions and conduct a comprehensive stability analysis of the system’s equilibria to assess its epidemiological relevance. Our results demonstrate that the disease will be eradicated from the population when R0<1, while the disease will persist when R0>1. Furthermore, we explore various bifurcation phenomena, including transcritical, backward, saddle-node, and Hopf, and discuss their epidemiological implications. For the stochastic model, we demonstrate the existence of a unique global positive solution. We also identify sufficient conditions for the disease extinction and persistence. Additionally, by developing a suitable Lyapunov function, we establish the existence of a stationary distribution. Several numerical simulations are conducted to validate the theoretical findings of the deterministic and stochastic models. The results provide a comprehensive demonstration of the disease dynamics in constant as well as noisy environments, highlighting the implications of our study.

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Keywords

Dynamical systems and ergodic theory, Ordinary differential equations

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
10
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
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