
doi: 10.1063/5.0243656
pmid: 40009112
In this paper, we introduce a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemic model and analyze it in both deterministic and stochastic contexts, incorporating the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. The model incorporates a nonlinear incidence rate and a saturated treatment response. We establish the basic properties of solutions and conduct a comprehensive stability analysis of the system’s equilibria to assess its epidemiological relevance. Our results demonstrate that the disease will be eradicated from the population when R0<1, while the disease will persist when R0>1. Furthermore, we explore various bifurcation phenomena, including transcritical, backward, saddle-node, and Hopf, and discuss their epidemiological implications. For the stochastic model, we demonstrate the existence of a unique global positive solution. We also identify sufficient conditions for the disease extinction and persistence. Additionally, by developing a suitable Lyapunov function, we establish the existence of a stationary distribution. Several numerical simulations are conducted to validate the theoretical findings of the deterministic and stochastic models. The results provide a comprehensive demonstration of the disease dynamics in constant as well as noisy environments, highlighting the implications of our study.
Dynamical systems and ergodic theory, Ordinary differential equations
Dynamical systems and ergodic theory, Ordinary differential equations
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