We derive and numerically validate a low-order oscillator model to capture the stochastic dynamics of a prototypical thermoacoustic system (a Rijke tube) undergoing a subcritical Hopf bifurcation in the presence of additive noise. We find that on the fixed-point branch before the bifurcation, the system is dominated by the first duct mode, and the Fokker–Planck solution for the first Galerkin mode can adequately predict the stochastic dynamics of the overall system. We also find that this analytical framework predicts well the dominant mode on the limit-cycle branch, but underperforms in the hysteretic bistable zone where the role of nonlinearities is more pronounced. Besides offering new insights into stochastic thermoacoustic behavior, this study shows that an analytical framework based on the Fokker–Planck equation can facilitate the early detection of thermoacoustic instabilities in a Rijke-tube model subjected to noise.