
doi: 10.1063/1.4903595
The relationship between real exchange rate and trade balances are documented in many theories. One of the theories is the so-called Marshall-Lerner condition. In this study, we seek to test for the validity of Marshall-Lerner hypothesis, i.e. to reveal if the depreciation of real exchange rate leads to the improvement in trade balances. We focus our study in ASEAN-5 countries and their main trade partners of U.S., Japan and China. The dynamic panel data of pooled mean group (PMG) approach is used to detect the Marshall-Lerner hypothesis among ASEAN-5, between ASEAN-5 and U.S., between ASEAN-5 and Japan and between ASEAN-5 and China respectively. The estimation is based on the autoregressive Distributed Lag or ARDL model for the period of 1970-2012. The paper concludes that Marshal Lerner theory does not hold in bilateral trades in four groups of countries. The trade balances of ASEAN5 are mainly determined by the domestic income level and foreign production cost.
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