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Article . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
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Article . 2013
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SSE Research Hub
Other literature type . 2013
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Approaching the Limit of Predictability in Human Mobility

Authors: Lu, Xin; Wetter, Erik; Bharti, Nita; Tatem, Andrew J.; Bengtsson, Linus;

Approaching the Limit of Predictability in Human Mobility

Abstract

In this study we analyze the travel patterns of 500,000 individuals in Cote d'Ivoire using mobile phone call data records. By measuring the uncertainties of movements using entropy, considering both the frequencies and temporal correlations of individual trajectories, we find that the theoretical maximum predictability is as high as 88%. To verify whether such a theoretical limit can be approached, we implement a series of Markov chain (MC) based models to predict the actual locations visited by each user. Results show that MC models can produce a prediction accuracy of 87% for stationary trajectories and 95% for non-stationary trajectories. Our findings indicate that human mobility is highly dependent on historical behaviors, and that the maximum predictability is not only a fundamental theoretical limit for potential predictive power, but also an approachable target for actual prediction accuracy.

Countries
United Kingdom, Sweden
Keywords

Travel, Models, Statistical, 330, 000, Statistical methods, Epidemiology, Population Dynamics, Article, Markov Chains, Computational biology and bioinformatics, Pattern Recognition, Automated, Humans, Information Technology, Algorithms, Cell Phone

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    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
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    influence
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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
300
Top 1%
Top 1%
Top 1%
Green
gold