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Geophysical Research Letters
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY NC ND
Data sources: Crossref
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Geophysical Research Letters
Article . 2025
Data sources: DOAJ
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Probabilistic, Multi‐Sensor Eruption Forecasting

Authors: Y. Behr; A. Christophersen; C. Miller;

Probabilistic, Multi‐Sensor Eruption Forecasting

Abstract

AbstractWe developed an eruption forecasting model using data from multiple sensors or data streams with the Bayesian network method. The model generates probabilistic forecasts that are interpretable and resilient against sensor outage. We applied the model at Whakaari/White Island, an andesite island volcano off the coast of New Zealand, using seismic tremor recordings, earthquake rate, and CO2, SO2, and H2S emission rates. At Whakaari/White Island, our model shows increases in eruption probability months to weeks prior to the three explosive eruptions that were recorded between 2013 and 2019. Our model outperforms the use of any of the data sets alone as an indicator for impending eruptions. Although developed for Whakaari/White Island, our model can be easily adapted to other volcanoes, complementing existing forecasting methods that rely on single data streams.

Keywords

Bayesian network, QC801-809, White Island, Geophysics. Cosmic physics, eruption forecasting, Whakaari

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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