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Earth's Future
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY NC ND
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Earth's Future
Article . 2025
Data sources: DOAJ
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Response of Global Mesoscale Convective Systems to Increased CO 2 and Uniform SST Warming in a Global Storm‐Resolving Model

Authors: Wenhao Dong; Ming Zhao; Lucas Harris; Kai‐Yuan Cheng; Linjiong Zhou; V. Ramaswamy;

Response of Global Mesoscale Convective Systems to Increased CO 2 and Uniform SST Warming in a Global Storm‐Resolving Model

Abstract

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are critical components of global energy and water cycles and significantly contribute to extreme weather events. However, projecting future MCS behavior remains challenging due to the limitations of regional models and the inadequate representation of MCSs in coarser climate models. In this study, we use GFDL's global storm‐resolving model (GSRM), X‐SHiELD, to explore the response of global MCSs to both increased sea surface temperatures (SST) and elevated CO 2 levels using three sets of unique two‐year‐long warming simulations. We find that SST warming leads to an increase in MCS occurrence over ocean regions while reducing it over land, whereas elevated CO 2 results in an overall increase over ocean and land. When SST and CO 2 increases are combined, their impacts on MCS changes are generally additive. Using stepwise multiple linear regression, we identify the key environmental drivers of these changes across five MCS hotspots, highlighting the regional variability in MCS responses. Furthermore, MCS‐associated precipitation and its contribution to total rainfall are shaped by changes in both MCS frequency and the precipitation intensity within each event. By utilizing the explicit MCS‐resolving capabilities of GSRMs, this study provides critical insights into future changes in MCS characteristics and their implications for global precipitation patterns.

Keywords

increased CO2, Environmental sciences, Ecology, global storm‐resolving model, GE1-350, uniform SST warming, QH540-549.5, mesoscale convective systems

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
gold