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Water Resources Research
Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
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Distribution‐Based Global Sensitivity Analysis in Hydrology

Authors: Valentina Ciriello; Ilaria Lauriola; Daniel M. Tartakovsky;

Distribution‐Based Global Sensitivity Analysis in Hydrology

Abstract

AbstractGlobal sensitivity analysis (GSA) is routinely used in academic setting to quantify the influence of input variability and uncertainty on predictions of a quantity of interest. Practical applications of GSA are hampered by its high computational cost, which arises from the need to run large (e.g., groundwater) models multiple times, and by its reliance on the analysis of variance, which formally requires input parameters to be uncorrelated. The former difficulty can be alleviated by replacing expensive models with inexpensive (e.g., polynomial) surrogates, while adoption of distribution‐based (rather than variance‐based) metrics can, in principle, overcome the latter but at significantly increased computational cost. To make use of distribution‐based GSA feasible for regional‐scale models with a large number of degrees of freedom, we supplement it with a surrogate model built with polynomial chaos expansions with analytically updated coefficients. We demonstrate the computational efficiency of our algorithm on a case study dealing with evaluation of the effects of temperature variability on annual evapotranspiration at the regional scale.

Keywords

uncertainty, surrogate model, polynomial chaos, evapotranspiration,

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    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
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    Top 10%
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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
24
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
gold