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Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
Article . 2009 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
Data sources: Crossref
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Stratospheric predictability and sudden stratospheric warming events

Authors: Cristiana Stan; David M. Straus;

Stratospheric predictability and sudden stratospheric warming events

Abstract

A comparative study of the limit of predictability in the stratosphere and troposphere in a coupled general circulation model is carried out using the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Interactive Ensemble (CFSIE). In “identical twin experiments”, we compare the forecast errors of zonal wind and potential temperature in the troposphere and stratosphere for various wave groups. The results show smaller intrinsic error growth in the lower stratosphere compared with troposphere. The limit of predictability of sudden stratospheric warming events, measured by the errors in the divergence of the Eliassen‐Palm flux, is dominated by the amplification of small errors in the individual fields due to differences between the phase of the waves.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
38
Top 10%
Top 10%
Average
bronze