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Geophysical Research Letters
Article . 2002 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
Data sources: Crossref
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Detecting anthropogenic influence with a multi‐model ensemble

Authors: Gillett, N. P.; Zwiers, F. W.; Weaver, A. J.; Hegerl, G. C.; Allen, M. R.; Stott, P. A.;

Detecting anthropogenic influence with a multi‐model ensemble

Abstract

Averaging results from multiple models has previously been found to improve estimates of the climatology and seasonal predictions of atmospheric variables. Here we describe how a multi‐model mean of the simulated response to greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol changes may be used to detect anthropogenic influence on surface temperature. The scaling factor on a combined greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol response pattern is estimated using a five model ensemble, and is found to be similar to that estimated using individual models, with similar uncertainties. When applied to the simultaneous detection of separate greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol responses, the multi‐model method indicates a closer consistency between the observations and simulated responses, with reduced uncertainties. This improvement is at least in part due to the larger ensemble sizes and increased length of control integration available when data from multiple models are combined.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
74
Top 10%
Top 1%
Top 10%
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