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Environmental Science & Technology
Article . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
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Estimating Trophic Levels and Trophic Magnification Factors Using Bayesian Inference

Authors: Starrfelt, Jostein; Borgå, Katrine; Ruus, Anders; Fjeld, Eirik;

Estimating Trophic Levels and Trophic Magnification Factors Using Bayesian Inference

Abstract

Food web biomagnification is increasingly assessed by estimating trophic magnification factors (TMF) where solvent (often lipid) normalized contaminant concentration is regressed onto the trophic level, and TMFs are represented by the slope of the relationship. In TMF regressions, the uncertainty in the contaminant concentrations is appreciated, whereas the trophic levels are assumed independent and not associated with variability or uncertainty pertaining to e.g. quantification. In reality, the trophic levels may vary due to measurement error in stable isotopes of nitrogen (δ(15)N) of each sample, in δ(15)N in selected reference baseline trophic level, and in the enrichment factor of δ(15)N between two trophic levels (ΔN), which are all needed to calculate trophic levels. The present study used a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, with knowledge about the food web structure, which resulted in a dramatic increase in the precision in the TMF estimates. This also lead to a better understanding of the uncertainties in bioaccumulation measures; instead of using point estimates of TMF, the uncertainty can be quantified (i.e., TMF >1, namely positive biomagnification, with an estimated X % probability).

Country
Norway
Keywords

Food Chain, Nitrogen Isotopes, Regression Analysis, Bayes Theorem, Computer Simulation, Monte Carlo Method, Markov Chains

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    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
29
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
bronze