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Trends in Cognitive Sciences
Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
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Trends in Cognitive Sciences
Article
License: CC BY
Data sources: UnpayWall
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Trends in Cognitive Sciences
Article . 2016
License: CC BY
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Bayesian Brains without Probabilities

Authors: Sanborn, Adam N.; Chater, Nick;

Bayesian Brains without Probabilities

Abstract

Bayesian explanations have swept through cognitive science over the past two decades, from intuitive physics and causal learning, to perception, motor control and language. Yet people flounder with even the simplest probability questions. What explains this apparent paradox? How can a supposedly Bayesian brain reason so poorly with probabilities? In this paper, we propose a direct and perhaps unexpected answer: that Bayesian brains need not represent or calculate probabilities at all and are, indeed, poorly adapted to do so. Instead, the brain is a Bayesian sampler. Only with infinite samples does a Bayesian sampler conform to the laws of probability; with finite samples it systematically generates classic probabilistic reasoning errors, including the unpacking effect, base-rate neglect, and the conjunction fallacy.

Related Organizations
Keywords

sampling, Cognitive Neuroscience, BF, Brain, Experimental and Cognitive Psychology, Bayes Theorem, Bayesian models of cognition, Thinking, Neuropsychology and Physiological Psychology, reasoning biases, Cognitive Science, Humans, Probability

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
194
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 1%
Green
hybrid