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Physica A Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
e-Prints Soton
Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: e-Prints Soton
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Statistical properties of volume and calendar effects in prediction markets

Authors: Restocchi, Valerio; McGroarty, Frank; Gerding, Enrico;

Statistical properties of volume and calendar effects in prediction markets

Abstract

Abstract Prediction markets have proven to be an exceptional tool for harnessing the “wisdom of the crowd”, consequently making accurate forecasts about future events. Motivated by the lack of quantitative means of validations for models of prediction markets, in this paper we analyze the statistical properties of volume as well as the seasonal regularities (i.e., calendar effects) shown by volume and price. To accomplish this, we use a set of 3385 prediction market time series provided by PredictIt. We find that volume, with the exception of its seasonal regularities, possesses different properties than what is observed in financial markets. Moreover, price does not seem to exhibit any calendar effect. These findings suggest a significant difference between prediction and financial markets, and offer evidence for the need of studying prediction markets in more detail.

Country
United Kingdom
Related Organizations
Keywords

Stylized facts, Long memory, 330, Prediction markets, Political markets, Power-law behavior

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
3
Average
Average
Average
Green
bronze
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