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Quantifying instabilities in Financial Markets

Authors: Gonçalves, Bruna Amin; Carpi, Laura; Rosso, Osvaldo Aníbal; Ravetti, Martín G.; Atman, A. P. F.;

Quantifying instabilities in Financial Markets

Abstract

Financial global crisis has devastating impacts to economies since early XX century and continues to impose increasing collateral damages for governments, enterprises, and society in general. Up to now, all efforts to obtain efficient methods to predict these events have been disappointing. However, the quest for a robust estimator of the degree of the market efficiency, or even, a crisis predictor, is still one of the most studied subjects in the field. We present here an original contribution that combines Information Theory with graph concepts, to study the return rate series of 32 global trade markets. Specifically, we propose a very simple quantifier that shows to be highly correlated with global financial instability periods, being also a good estimator of the market crisis risk and market resilience. We show that this estimator displays striking results when applied to countries that played central roles during the last major global market crisis. The simplicity and effectiveness of our quantifier allow us to anticipate its use in a wide range of disciplines.

5 pages, 3 figures

Country
Argentina
Keywords

FOS: Computer and information sciences, VISIBILITY GRAPH METHOD, Statistical Finance (q-fin.ST), Computer Science - Information Theory, Information Theory (cs.IT), Quantitative Finance - Statistical Finance, INFORMATION THEORY, SHANNON ENTROPY, FOS: Economics and business, https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.3, FISHER INFORMATION, https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1, CRISIS

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    19
    popularity
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    influence
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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
19
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
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