
arXiv: 1511.02545
handle: 1959.4/unsworks_54867
Fractional-order SIR models have become increasingly popular in the literature in recent years, however unlike the standard SIR model, they often lack a derivation from an underlying stochastic process. Here we derive a fractional-order infectivity SIR model from a stochastic process that incorporates a time-since-infection dependence on the infectivity of individuals. The fractional derivative appears in the generalised master equations of a continuous time random walk through SIR compartments, with a power-law function in the infectivity. We show that this model can also be formulated as an infection-age structured Kermack-McKendrick integro-differential SIR model. Under the appropriate limit the fractional infectivity model reduces to the standard ordinary differential equation SIR model.
16 pages, no figures
570, anzsrc-for: 4901 Applied mathematics, 330, anzsrc-for: 4902 Mathematical physics, Epidemiology, fractional order differential equations, continuous time random walk, Fractional ordinary differential equations, Dynamical Systems (math.DS), 92D30, 26A33, 34A08, SIR models, 4903 Numerical and Computational Mathematics, FOS: Mathematics, Mathematics - Dynamical Systems, Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution, epidemiological models, anzsrc-for: 4903 Numerical and Computational Mathematics, Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE), anzsrc-for: 4905 Statistics, 4905 Statistics, anzsrc-for: 49 Mathematical Sciences, anzsrc-for: 0206 Quantum Physics, FOS: Biological sciences, 49 Mathematical Sciences, anzsrc-for: 0105 Mathematical Physics, anzsrc-for: 0102 Applied Mathematics
570, anzsrc-for: 4901 Applied mathematics, 330, anzsrc-for: 4902 Mathematical physics, Epidemiology, fractional order differential equations, continuous time random walk, Fractional ordinary differential equations, Dynamical Systems (math.DS), 92D30, 26A33, 34A08, SIR models, 4903 Numerical and Computational Mathematics, FOS: Mathematics, Mathematics - Dynamical Systems, Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution, epidemiological models, anzsrc-for: 4903 Numerical and Computational Mathematics, Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE), anzsrc-for: 4905 Statistics, 4905 Statistics, anzsrc-for: 49 Mathematical Sciences, anzsrc-for: 0206 Quantum Physics, FOS: Biological sciences, 49 Mathematical Sciences, anzsrc-for: 0105 Mathematical Physics, anzsrc-for: 0102 Applied Mathematics
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