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Physica A Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
Article . 2006 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
ARUdA
Article . 2006
Data sources: ARUdA
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A Markov model of financial returns

Authors: SERVA, Maurizio; Fulco U. L; Gleria I. M; Lyra M. L; Petroni F; Viswanathan G. M.;

A Markov model of financial returns

Abstract

Abstract We address the general problem of how to quantify the kinematics of time series with stationary first moments but having non stationary multifractal long-range correlated second moments. We show that a Markov process is sufficient to model important aspects of the multifractality observed in financial time series and propose a kinematic model of price fluctuations. We test the proposed model by analyzing index closing prices of the New York Stock Exchange and the DEM/USD tick-by-tick exchange rates obtained from Reuters EFX. We show that the model captures the characteristic features observed in actual financial time series, including volatility clustering, time scaling and fat tails in the probability density functions, power-law behavior of volatility correlations and, most importantly, the observed nonuniversal multifractal singularity spectrum. Motivated by our finding of strong agreement between the model and the data, we argue that at least two independent stochastic Gaussian variables are required to adequately model price fluctuations.

Keywords

Multifractals; Times series analysis; Volatility correlations, Multifractals; Times series analysis; Volatility correlations; Statistics and Probability; Condensed Matter Physics

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    Average
    influence
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
16
Average
Top 10%
Top 10%
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