Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Journal of Policy Mo...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
Journal of Policy Modeling
Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
versions View all 1 versions
addClaim

Secular stagnation or technological lull?

Authors: Valerie A. Ramey;

Secular stagnation or technological lull?

Abstract

Abstract The slow recovery of the economy from the Great Recession and the lingering low real interest rates have led to fears of “secular stagnation” and calls for government aggregate demand stimulus to lift the growth rate of the economy. I present evidence that the current state of the U.S. economy does not satisfy the conditions for secular stagnation, as originally defined by Alvin Hansen (1939) . Instead, the U.S. is experiencing a period of low productivity growth. I suggest that long intervals of sluggish productivity growth may be natural in an economy whose growth is driven by technological revolutions that are large, infrequent, and randomly-timed. If this is the case, then the best description of the recent experience of the U.S. economy is a technological lull. In this situation, traditional government aggregate demand stimulus policies are not the appropriate response. Instead policies that can increase the rate of innovation and its diffusion may be more appropriate.

Related Organizations
  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    10
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
10
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Upload OA version
Are you the author of this publication? Upload your Open Access version to Zenodo!
It’s fast and easy, just two clicks!