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Journal of Econometrics
Article . 2006 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
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Synchronization of cycles

Authors: Harding, Allan; Pagan, A;

Synchronization of cycles

Abstract

Abstract Many interesting issues are posed by synchronization of cycles. In this paper, we define synchronization and show how the degree of synchronization can be measured. We propose heteroscedasticity and serial correlation robust tests of the hypotheses that cycles are either unsynchronized or perfectly synchronized. Tests of synchronization are performed using data on industrial production, on monthly stock indices and on series that are used to construct the reference cycle for the United States. An algorithm is developed to extract a common cycle. It is used to extract the reference cycle for the United States and common cycles in stock prices and European industrial production.

Keywords

turning points, 330, synchronisation, Economics Business cycles, Synchronization, Factor models, Industrial economics, Keywords: Algorithms, Synchronisation, 1403 Econometrics, Inventory control, Common cycles, Turning points, Business Cycles, common cycles, Business Cycles, Common Cycles, Synchronization, Turning Points, Factor Models, Business cycles, 140300 Econometrics, College of Business, Common Cycles, 1402 (four-digit-FOR), business cycles, Correlation methods, Turning Points, Factor Models, jel: jel:C22, jel: jel:C12, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:C33, jel: jel:C14

  • BIP!
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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    254
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 1%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
254
Top 1%
Top 1%
Top 1%
Green