Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number
Copyright policy )Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number
The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure of the severeness of the epidemic, and is also closely related to the basic reproduction number. Estimating the growth rate from the epidemic curve can be a challenge, because of its decays with time. For fast epidemics, the estimation is subject to over-fitting due to the limited number of data points available, which also limits our choice of models for the epidemic curve. We discuss the estimation of the growth rate using maximum likelihood method and simple models.
- University of Victoria Canada
- University of Victoria Canada
Phenomenological models, Epidemic curve, Infectious and parasitic diseases, RC109-216, Confronting Infectious Disease Models with Public Health Data; Edited by Prof. Michael Li, Prof. Julien Arino, Prof. Junling Ma, Prof. Zen Jin, Maximum likelihood estimation, Exponential growth rate
Phenomenological models, Epidemic curve, Infectious and parasitic diseases, RC109-216, Confronting Infectious Disease Models with Public Health Data; Edited by Prof. Michael Li, Prof. Julien Arino, Prof. Junling Ma, Prof. Zen Jin, Maximum likelihood estimation, Exponential growth rate
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).220 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 1% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 0.1%
Citations provided by BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!