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We ask whether mortality from historical pandemics has any predictive content for mortality in the Covid-19 pandemic. We find strong persistence in public health performance. Places that performed worse in terms of mortality in the 1918 influenza pandemic also have higher Covid-19 mortality today. This is true across countries as well as across a sample of large US cities. Experience with SARS in 2003 is associated with slightly lower mortality today. We discuss some socio-political factors that may account for persistence including distrust of expert advice, lack of cooperation, over-confidence, and health care supply shortages. Multi-generational effects of past pandemics may also matter.
Economics, Applied economics, Article, Persistence, Humans, Pandemics, SARS, General Arts, Pandemic, SARS-CoV-2, pandemic, Politics, COVID-19, Influenza, Emerging Infectious Diseases, Good Health and Well Being, Applied Economics, Pneumonia & Influenza, Humanities & Social Sciences, Public Health, Infection, Covid-19
Economics, Applied economics, Article, Persistence, Humans, Pandemics, SARS, General Arts, Pandemic, SARS-CoV-2, pandemic, Politics, COVID-19, Influenza, Emerging Infectious Diseases, Good Health and Well Being, Applied Economics, Pneumonia & Influenza, Humanities & Social Sciences, Public Health, Infection, Covid-19
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 4 | |
popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% | |
influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Average | |
impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Average |