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Economic Modelling
Article
License: CC BY
Data sources: UnpayWall
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Economic Modelling
Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
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Testing threshold cointegration in Wagner's Law: The role of military spending

Authors: CAVICCHIOLI, MADDALENA; PISTORESI, Barbara;

Testing threshold cointegration in Wagner's Law: The role of military spending

Abstract

This paper uses historical data since mid-19th century to test the validity of Wagner's Law for the Italian economy. Unlike the previous studies, we accommodate possible nonlinear asymmetric effects of total gov- erment spending and GDP toward their long-run equilibrium. Our results show the presence of a threshold cointegrating relationship between the two variables with significantly different error correction adjustments in normal and extreme regimes. Particularly, we find the validity of Wagner's Law from 1862 to 2009, only when we take into account strong nonlinear responses of government spending during the WWI and WWII period. Robustness checks clearly recognize nonlinear behaviour of government expenditure driven by military spending.

Country
Italy
Keywords

Time series, Nonlinearity, Threshold Vector Error Correction, Public spending, Economic growth, Wagner’s Law

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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