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Economics Letters
Article
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Economics Letters
Article . 2006 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
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Research Papers in Economics
Preprint . 2004
Full-Text: http://www.nber.org/papers/w10359.pdf
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https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.e...
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Interpreting the predictions of prediction markets

descriptionPublicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Preprint 01 Jun 2006 English Publisher:Elsevier BVJournal:Economics Letters, volume 91, pages 425-429 (issn: 0165-1765, Copyright policy )Funded by:NSF | Identification and Empiri...
Authors: Charles F. Manski;

doi: 10.1016/j.econlet.2006.01.004

Interpreting the predictions of prediction markets

Abstract

Abstract Prediction markets are futures markets in which prices are used to predict future events. I present the first formal analysis of price determination supposing traders have heterogeneous beliefs, deriving the equilibrium when traders are risk-neutral price takers.

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Keywords

jel: jel:D84, jel: jel:G10

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    		 169
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
169
Top 1%
Top 1%
Top 10%
bronze