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Predictive online convex optimization

Authors: Antoine Lesage-Landry; Iman Shames; Joshua A. Taylor;

Predictive online convex optimization

Abstract

We incorporate future information in the form of the estimated value of future gradients in online convex optimization. This is motivated by demand response in power systems, where forecasts about the current round, e.g., the weather or the loads' behavior, can be used to improve on predictions made with only past observations. Specifically, we introduce an additional predictive step that follows the standard online convex optimization step when certain conditions on the estimated gradient and descent direction are met. We show that under these conditions and without any assumptions on the predictability of the environment, the predictive update strictly improves on the performance of the standard update. We give two types of predictive update for various family of loss functions. We provide a regret bound for each of our predictive online convex optimization algorithms. Finally, we apply our framework to an example based on demand response which demonstrates its superior performance to a standard online convex optimization algorithm.

Country
Canada
Keywords

FOS: Computer and information sciences, Convex programming, Computer Science - Machine Learning, convex optimization, load dispatching, Machine Learning (cs.LG), Controllability, observability, and system structure, power systems, machine learning, Large-scale systems, Optimization and Control (math.OC), FOS: Mathematics, renewable energy systems, Mathematics - Optimization and Control, learning algorithms

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    selected citations
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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    15
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
15
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
bronze