
doi: 10.1007/bf02778965
Previous studies of the Phillips Curve using capacity, utilization have estimated NAIRCU to be in the neighborhood of 82%. These studies estimate NAIRCU by imposing the restriction that there is no stable long run relationship between capacity utilization and the rate of inflation. The authors of these studies test the validity of this restricted model by estimating a model of the Phillips Curve, which has no supply-side variables. However, the actual estimates of NAIRCU are derived from restricted models, which include supply side variables. This article replicates these findings and then tests the validity of the restriction using a correctly specified model. An important finding is that the restriction is not valid and therefore the models used to produce estimates of NAIRCU are misspecified. Our findings call into question the existence of a vertical long run Phillips Curve. The implications of our findings are that the FED was overly cautious in raising interest rates to slow the economy and that the policy of pursuing “full employment” is still viable.
Economics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Economics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 2 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Average | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Average | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Average |
