
doi: 10.1007/bf01717799
To confirm on a more disaggregated level earlier macro-economic studies in the field, an attempt is made in this paper to find out whether a vintage model of the clay-clay type also provides a framework for a plausible explanation of long-run sectoral developments of production capacity, labour requirements and employment. Nine sectors are considered, comprising the total enterprises sector. For this total enterprises sector an (amended) clay-clay vintage model is also (re-)estimated. The results indicate that in the process of adjustments, real labour costs are the strategic variable, though capacity utilization is also recognized as a factor affecting employment directly and indirectly. Projections of employment with the macro vintage model are satisfactory. Specifically, they are more satisfactory than the extrapolations for either manufacturing or non-manufacturing taken separately, and the macro projections compete fairly well with those based on an overall aggregation of employment projections over all nine sectors considered.
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