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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Biological Cyberneti...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
Biological Cybernetics
Article . 1990 . Peer-reviewed
License: Springer TDM
Data sources: Crossref
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
zbMATH Open
Article . 1990
Data sources: zbMATH Open
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Time series — information and prediction

Time series - information and prediction
Authors: Teodorescu, D.;

Time series — information and prediction

Abstract

A time series \(Y_ t\) can be transformed into another time series \(V_ t\) by means of a linear transformation. Should the matrix of that transformation have an inverse, the pair \((Y_ t,V_ t)\) is called invertible. Based on the decomposition procedure for stationary time series it is shown that a sufficient condition for the invertibility of the pair \((Y_ t,V_ t)\) is that \(V_ t\) be the first component of \(Y_ t\), i.e. \(V_ t=V^ 1_ t\). By the invertibility property \(V^ 1_ t\) can be used for forecasting, that is, predictions are made on \(V^ 1_ t\) which is then transformed into \(Y_ t\). Since the first component depends on a parameter \(\alpha\), i.e. \(V^ 1_ t=V^ 1_ t(\alpha)\), a procedure is proposed that allows us to find the optimal parameter value, \(\alpha =\alpha_ 0\). Thus, it is shown that better forecasting accuracy may result by fitting a simple autoregression to the first component \(V^ 1_ t(\alpha_ 0)\), than if the process \(Y_ t\) were described by a more elaborate model. Model building is therefore no longer a prerequisite in forecasting. The forecasting procedure is then extended so as to cope with the homogeneous nonstationary case, and examples are given to illustrate the forecasting accuracy as compared to customary model-based approaches.

Keywords

autoregression, decomposition procedure, invertibility, linear transformation, Inference from stochastic processes and prediction, Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH), homogeneous nonstationary case, spreading rate concept, time series, predictions

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Average
Top 10%
Average
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