Imagine you are trying to predict the outcome of a fair coin toss. You guess heads and flip your coin. It lands on heads. You decide to try your luck again, keeping with your guess of heads. Again, it lands on heads. You repeat this experiment five more times, continuing with your initial guess and it lands on heads three more times. Delighted that you are averaging more than the expected 50% probability, you decide to try once more; do you stick with your original guess of heads or change it?