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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao zbMATH Openarrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
zbMATH Open
Article
Data sources: zbMATH Open
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-...
Part of book or chapter of book . 1976 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
Operations Research
Article . 1965 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Dynamic Inference

Dynamic inference
Authors: Ronald A. Howard;

Dynamic Inference

Abstract

We consider a model for dynamic uncertain processes that affords considerably more generality of formulation than do Markovian models or their derivatives. The underlying statistical parameters of a stochastic process that produces observable outputs are themselves allowed to change at times generated by another stochastic process. We would like to make probability assignments to future outputs of the process, given only the past outputs. We develop the inferential relations for the case where the changes of parameters are governed by a renewal process, and where the process that generates observables depends only on its present parameters. We illustrate these results using an example with a Bernoulli observable distribution, a beta parameter distribution, and a geometric distribution for for the time between parameter changes. The numerical results indicate a complexity of behavior that challenges intuition. Possible applications of the general class of dynamic inference models range from marketing to anti-submarine warfare.

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Keywords

operations research

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
29
Top 1%
Top 0.1%
Top 10%
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