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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao https://doi.org/10.1...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-...
Part of book or chapter of book . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
License: Springer TDM
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Implied Volatility Forecasting Realized Volatility

Authors: Thi Le;

Implied Volatility Forecasting Realized Volatility

Abstract

This chapter conducts an empirical analysis of IV to forecast the RV through testing hypothesis 1–9. The analysis includes three steps. First, estimate the IV for ATM price of currency options with 1-, 2-, and 3-month maturity during opening, midday, and closing period. Second, estimate the RV of currency to use as the proxy for the actual volatility. Finally, assess the performance of IV to forecast RV accurately for the within-week, 1-week, and 1-month forecast horizon. The findings indicate that the IV with different options maturity subsumes the relevant information of underlying currency volatility for different forecast horizons. IV obtained from the early of a week (Monday or Tuesday) and later of a week (Thursday) contain relevant information to forecast RV for the within-week forecast horizon. The information content embedded in IV from early of a week (Monday or Tuesday) is informative to forecast RV for the 1-week and 1-month forecast horizon.

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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