AbstractEffective and timely link‐layer trigger mechanisms can significantly influence the handover performance. The handover process will not perform the correct decision and execution unless adequate and timely link‐layer trigger information is delivered. In this paper, a predictive link trigger mechanism for seamless horizontal and vertical handovers in heterogeneous wireless networks is proposed. Unlike previous link trigger algorithms based on pre‐defined signal level thresholds, the link layer triggers in this study are adaptively and timely fired in accordance with the network conditions. Firstly, the time required to perform a handover is estimated based on the neighboring network conditions. Secondly, the time to trigger a Link_Going_Down to initiate a handover is determined using a least mean square linear prediction in which the prediction interval (kh) is dynamically determined based on the estimated handover time. An upper bound for the packet loss rate during a handover is derived for a Gaussian shadowing channel. A manner in which this approach can be applied to IEEE 802.21 is shown in media independent handover scenarios. Simulation results of the proposed predictive link triggering mechanism show that it provides a timely proactive handover. The packet loss rate observed in a Gaussian shadowing channel remains low during a handover. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.