
doi: 10.1002/sam.11389
Crime forecasts are sensitive to the spatial discretizations on which they are defined. Furthermore, while the Predictive Accuracy Index (PAI) is a common evaluation metric for crime forecasts, most crime forecasting methods are optimized using maximum likelihood or other smooth optimization techniques. Here we present a novel methodology that jointly (1) selects an optimal grid size and orientation and (2) learns a scoring function with the aim of directly maximizing PAI. Our method was one of the top performing submissions in the 2017 NIJ Crime Forecasting challenge, winning 9 of the 20 PAI categories under the name of team PASDA. We illustrate the model on data provided through the competition from the Portland Police Department.
crime forecast, Statistics, Computer science, grid, rotation, random forest, point process
crime forecast, Statistics, Computer science, grid, rotation, random forest, point process
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 32 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Top 10% | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% |
