AbstractA guaranteed estimator for a general class of nonlinear systems and on‐line usage is developed and analysed. This filter bounds the linearization error, then applies a linear set‐membership filter such that stability guarantees hold for nonlinear systems. A tight bound on the linearization error is found using interval analysis. This filter recursively estimates an ellipsoidal set in which the true state lies. General assumptions include the use of bounded noises and twice continuously differentiable dynamics. When the system is uniformly observable, it is proven that the nonlinear set‐membership filter is stable. In addition, if no noise is present and the initial error is small, the error between the centre of the estimated set and the true value converges to zero. The result is an estimator which is computationally attractive and can be implemented robustly in real‐time. The proposed method is applied to a two‐state example to demonstrate the theoretical results. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.