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Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
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https://dx.doi.org/10.5445/ir/...
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Windows of opportunity in subseasonal weather regime forecasting: A statistical–dynamical approach

Authors: Fabian Mockert; Christian M. Grams; Sebastian Lerch; Julian Quinting;

Windows of opportunity in subseasonal weather regime forecasting: A statistical–dynamical approach

Abstract

Abstract The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) are prominent sources of subseasonal predictability in the extratropics. It has been shown that the joint interaction of the MJO and the SPV can modulate the preferred phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the occurrence of weather regimes. However, improving numerical weather prediction (NWP) at 3‐week lead times remain underexplored. This study investigates how MJO and SPV phases affect Greenland Blocking (GL) activity and integrates atmospheric state information into a neural network to enhance week 3 weather regime activity forecasts. We define a weather regime activity metric using European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis and reforecasts. In reanalyses we find increased GL activity following MJO phases 7, 8, and 1, as well as weak SPV phases, indicating climatological windows of opportunity in line with previous studies. However, ECMWF forecast skill improves only in MJO phases 8 and 1 and weak SPV phases, identifying somewhat different model windows of opportunity. Next, we explore using these findings in postprocessing tools. Climatological forecasts based on MJO/SPV–NAO relationships provide a purely statistical approach to subseasonal GL activity forecasting, independent of NWP models. Notably, MJO‐conditioned climatological forecasts show clear signals when evaluated against observed GL activity. Statistical–dynamical models, using neural networks that combine historical atmospheric state data with NWP‐derived weather regime metrics, improve weather regime activity forecasts across all regimes considered, achieving an absolute accuracy increase of 5.8 percentage points in forecasting the dominant weather regime compared with ECMWF. This is particularly beneficial to blocking in the European domain, where NWP models often underperform. Atmospheric conditioned and neural network forecasts serve as valuable decision‐support tools alongside NWP models, enhancing the reliability of subseasonal predictions.

Country
Germany
Keywords

weather regimes, Earth sciences, Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/550, ddc:550, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph), Madden–Julian Oscillation, stratospheric polar vortex, FOS: Physical sciences, neural networks, windows of opportunity

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green
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