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Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
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Convection‐permitting ensembles: Challenges related to their design and use

Authors: Inger‐Lise Frogner; Andrew T. Singleton; Morten Ø. Køltzow; Ulf Andrae;

Convection‐permitting ensembles: Challenges related to their design and use

Abstract

Challenges related to the design and use of a convection‐permitting ensemble (CPEPS) are discussed. In particular the scale‐dependent predictability of precipitation and the use of a CPEPS as well as its potential added value over global ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are investigated. Forecasts of precipitation from the operational CPEPS in Finland, Norway and Sweden (MEPS) are used for the investigations. It is found that predictability for scales smaller than ∼60 km is lost rapidly within the first 6 h of the forecast with the smallest predictable scale growing more slowly to ∼100 km over the following 18–24 h. However, there is large case‐to‐case variability and the ensemble perturbations fail to become fully saturated, especially in winter, suggesting a weakness in the design of the ensemble. The added value of CPEPS over deterministic forecasts and coarser resolution EPSs is discussed with summary statistics and case‐studies. It is shown that the added value varies between seasons and lead times. For precipitation there is an added value for both severe precipitation events and for precipitation/no precipitation decisions. The added value is higher in summer compared to winter and for shorter lead times compared to longer lead times.

Keywords

Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorologi och atmosfärsvetenskap

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
55
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 10%
hybrid