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Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Article . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
Data sources: Crossref
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2013
License: arXiv Non-Exclusive Distribution
Data sources: Datacite
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Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting using Ensemble Model Output Statistics

Authors: Scheuerer, Michael;

Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting using Ensemble Model Output Statistics

Abstract

AbstractStatistical post‐processing of dynamical forecast ensembles is an essential component of weather forecasting. In this article, we present a post‐processing method which generates full predictive probability distributions for precipitation accumulations based on ensemble model output statistics (EMOS).We model precipitation amounts by a generalized extreme value distribution which is left‐censored at zero. This distribution permits modelling precipitation on the original scale without prior transformation of the data. A closed form expression for its continuous ranked probability score can be derived and permits computationally efficient model fitting. We discuss an extension of our approach which incorporates further statistics characterizing the spatial variability of precipitation amounts in the vicinity of the location of interest.The proposed EMOS method is applied to daily 18 h forecasts of 6 h accumulated precipitation over Germany in 2011 using the COSMO‐DE ensemble prediction system operated by the German Meteorological Service. It yields calibrated and sharp predictive distributions and compares favourably with extended logistic regression and Bayesian model averaging which are state‐of‐the‐art approaches for precipitation post‐processing. The incorporation of neighbourhood information further improves predictive performance and turns out to be a useful strategy to account for displacement errors of the dynamical forecasts in a probabilistic forecasting framework.

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Keywords

FOS: Computer and information sciences, Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph), FOS: Physical sciences, Applications (stat.AP), 86A10, 62-07, Statistics - Applications

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
152
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
bronze