ABSTRACT The development of the soil arching effect plays a crucial role in determining the overburden pressure of the shield tunnel. Stress level and associated soil mechanical behavior significantly affect the soil arching effect. Based on the experimental results of the deep‐buried shield tunneling, this paper proposes an analytical approach to predict the overburden pressure of the deep‐buried shield tunnel in sand, considering the soil dilatancy and the progressive development of the soil arching. Firstly, the relationship between the soil dilatancy and the development direction of the shear band is quantitatively described. Then, the formula for calculating the overburden pressure concerning the soil arching height is derived. Afterward, the relationship between the soil arching height and the ground loss ratio is established. Thus, the theoretical relationship between the overburden pressure and the ground loss ratio is promoted, and the predicted ground reaction curve (GRC) is obtained. The 1 g model tests and the centrifugal model test are selected to verify the accuracy of the proposed methodology. The results show that the predicted GRCs agree with the test results. Finally, the influence of tunnel cover‐to‐depth ratio ( C / D ), soil internal friction angle, and tunnel diameter on the development of the soil arching ratio with the increasing ground loss ratio is discussed. Compared with the theory for soil arching effect proposed by Terzaghi, this approach can quantitatively describe the evolution process of the soil arching effect and obtain continuous GRCs.