ABSTRACT The wear problem of disc cutters during large‐diameter shield tunneling in hard rock stratum has become increasingly prominent, significantly increasing engineering construction costs. Aiming at the disc cutter wear problem during large‐diameter shield tunneling in hard rock stratum, this paper analyzes the rock‐breaking form and contact force distribution in the cutter‐rock contact area, and establishes the prediction model for normal force, rolling force, and wear of disc cutter. The numerical simulation of disc cutter rock‐breaking is carried out using discrete element software, to explore the force and wear laws under different installation radius, cutter speed, and penetration depth. The wear partition phenomenon of disc cutter in different areas of the cutterhead is revealed, and the relationship between the wear law and installation position changes and its causes are analyzed. The wear prediction model is verified by the measured data of the Shantou Bay Undersea Tunnel Project. The research results provide a scientific basis for the wear prediction of large‐diameter shield disc cutters in hard rock stratum, which has important theoretical significance and engineering application.