
AbstractWe extract commodity‐level sentiment from the Twittersphere in 2009–2020. A long–short strategy based on sentiment shifts more than doubles the Sharpe ratio of extant commodity factors. Commodities with lower (higher) sentiment shifts tend to be overvalued (undervalued) when the aggregate market is in backwardation (contango). The sentiment premium is more pronounced during periods of macro contraction and deteriorating funding liquidity. While the premium concentrates in commodities with higher tweet intensity, sentiment extracted from influential tweets (i.e., high number of retweets/likes) does not exhibit stronger predictive ability than low‐attention tweets. Consistent with the overreaction hypothesis, the sentiment premium fully reverses 3 years postformation.
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 9 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Average | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% |
