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Journal of Futures Markets
Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
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Journal of Futures Markets
Article
License: CC BY
Data sources: UnpayWall
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Forecasting realized volatility: The role of implied volatility, leverage effect, overnight returns, and volatility of realized volatility

Authors: Dimos S. Kambouroudis; David G. McMillan; Katerina Tsakou;

Forecasting realized volatility: The role of implied volatility, leverage effect, overnight returns, and volatility of realized volatility

Abstract

AbstractWe forecast realized volatility extending the heterogeneous autoregressive model (HAR) to include implied volatility (IV), the leverage effect, overnight returns, and the volatility of realized volatility. We analyze 10 international stock indices finding that, although a simple HAR model augmented with IV (HAR‐IV) is more accurate than any HAR model excluding it, all markets support further extensions of the HAR‐IV model. More accurate forecasts are found using overnight returns in all markets except the UK, the volatility of realized volatility in the US, and the leverage effect in five markets. A value‐at‐risk exercise supports the economic significance of our findings.

Country
United Kingdom
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Keywords

realized volatility, HAR modeling and forecasting, overnight returns, 330, leverage effect, implied volatility indices

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    influence
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
44
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
hybrid