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Speculative pressure

Authors: John Hua Fan; Adrian Fernandez‐Perez; Ana‐Maria Fuertes; Joëlle Miffre;

Speculative pressure

Abstract

AbstractThe paper investigates the information content of speculative pressure across futures classes. Long‐short portfolios of futures contracts sorted by speculative pressure capture a significant premium in commodity, currency, and equity markets but not in fixed income markets. Exposure to commodity, currency, and equity index futures’ speculative pressure is priced in the broad cross‐section after controlling for momentum, carry, global liquidity, and volatility risks. The findings are confirmed by robustness tests using alternative speculative pressure signals, portfolio construction techniques, and subperiods interalia. We argue that there is an efficient hedgers‐speculators risk transfer in commodity, currency, and equity index futures markets.

Countries
United Kingdom, France
Keywords

HF, [QFIN]Quantitative Finance [q-fin], [QFIN.PR]Quantitative Finance [q-fin]/Pricing of Securities [q-fin.PR], 330, [QFIN.PM]Quantitative Finance [q-fin]/Portfolio Management [q-fin.PM], Speculative pressure, Risk premium, Futures markets, [QFIN.PR] Quantitative Finance [q-fin]/Pricing of Securities [q-fin.PR], HG, [QFIN.PM] Quantitative Finance [q-fin]/Portfolio Management [q-fin.PM], Banking, [QFIN] Quantitative Finance [q-fin], finance and investment, Pricing

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    popularity
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    Top 10%
    influence
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
22
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
bronze